● 由于向綠色能源的轉(zhuǎn)變，全球?qū)︿?、銅和鋅的需求正在迅速增加

● 鋰儲量豐富的澳大利亞正將注意力轉(zhuǎn)向開采這種礦物，以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮，減少對化石燃料的依賴

● 到2027—2028年，澳大利亞的鋰產(chǎn)量預(yù)計將翻一番，收入將增加兩倍，有可能超過南美洲的鋰三角開發(fā)項目，成為世界上最大的鋰生產(chǎn)國

顆粒在線訊：據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2023年4月16日報道，盡管世界仍嚴(yán)重依賴化石燃料及其帶來的收入，但隨著綠色能源的普及，我們可以預(yù)計將出現(xiàn)一系列新的高成本能源項目，這些項目可能為各國帶來數(shù)十億美元的收入。多年來，全球?qū)饘俨牧虾偷V產(chǎn)品的需求一直在上升，而且還在繼續(xù)快速攀升——事實上，速度太快了，采礦活動無法跟上。由于世界正在經(jīng)歷綠色轉(zhuǎn)型，對這些資源的需求量越來越大，諸如鋰等礦產(chǎn)品以及銅和鋅等金屬材料的價格預(yù)計將飆升。而這可能正是從化石燃料轉(zhuǎn)向綠色替代品所需要的激勵。

澳大利亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮和能源安全仍然嚴(yán)重依賴煤炭開采，現(xiàn)在它開始將注意力轉(zhuǎn)向鋰。憑借豐富的采礦經(jīng)驗和巨大的鋰儲量，澳大利亞可以在綠色轉(zhuǎn)型中發(fā)揮重要作用，并在此過程中獲得豐厚的利潤。智利和澳大利亞是世界上鋰儲量最大的國家，分別擁有920萬噸和570萬噸。雖然智利擁有更大的鋰儲量，但澳大利亞已經(jīng)成功地開發(fā)了其采礦潛力，到2022年，澳大利亞的鋰產(chǎn)量約為68450噸，而智利的鋰產(chǎn)量為26000噸。

盡管有可能轉(zhuǎn)向鋰礦開采，但澳大利亞每年仍在開采大量的煤炭，煤炭是最臟的化石燃料。2021年澳大利亞煤炭產(chǎn)量增加了大約3.5%，2022年煤炭產(chǎn)量持平，為5.651億噸。雖然到2050年實現(xiàn)澳大利亞政府的凈零碳排放目標(biāo)面臨巨大壓力，但截至2021年12月，有37個煤炭項目處于可行性階段。澳大利亞擁有741.47億噸黑煤和740.39億噸褐煤儲量，難怪澳大利亞希望繼續(xù)生產(chǎn)化石燃料，特別是亞洲對澳大利亞煤炭出口的需求仍然很高。然而，對于澳大利亞采礦業(yè)來說，現(xiàn)在可能有一種更清潔、更有利可圖的替代品——鋰。

由于電動汽車的普及和其他電池技術(shù)的發(fā)展，對這種白色金屬的需求增加，未來五年內(nèi)，澳大利亞的鋰出口收入可能會與動力煤的銷售收入持平。與此同時，由于對綠色替代品的需求減弱，化石燃料的價值預(yù)計將下降。澳大利亞政府最近公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，到2027—2028年，澳大利亞的鋰產(chǎn)量可能會翻一番，收入預(yù)計將增加兩倍。與此同時，澳大利亞的煤炭出口價值預(yù)計將下降70%以上。

今年鋰的價值預(yù)計將達(dá)到190億美元左右，然后隨著世界各地新鋰礦的投產(chǎn)，供需平衡，鋰的價格會下降。由于需求在未來幾十年繼續(xù)攀升，鋰的價值預(yù)計將在這次下跌之后再次上漲。從現(xiàn)在到2030年，電動汽車的銷量預(yù)計將增長10倍，而電動設(shè)備和可再生能源項目對電池的需求預(yù)計將大幅增長，因此對鋰的需求將大大增加。

除了鋰，澳大利亞的鎳儲量約占全球儲量的22%，鈷儲量約占全球儲量的21%，這意味著不再使用煤炭并不意味著澳大利亞采礦業(yè)或在國際能源行業(yè)中的角色的終結(jié)。

澳大利亞的目標(biāo)是到2026年前每年生產(chǎn)116240噸鋰，這可能使其成為世界上最大的鋰生產(chǎn)國。澳大利亞將面臨智利、玻利維亞和阿根廷之間的南美鋰三角開發(fā)項目的激烈競爭。這三個南美國家加起來約占全球鋰供應(yīng)的56%。

由于世界從化石燃料轉(zhuǎn)向綠色替代品，澳大利亞等國家有巨大的潛力來調(diào)整自己的采礦業(yè)務(wù)，并在全球金屬材料和礦產(chǎn)品市場上實現(xiàn)自我定位。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Could Lithium Become A More Lucrative Alternative To Fossil Fuels?

·     Global demand for lithium, copper and zinc is increasing rapidly due to the shift towards green energy.

·     Australia, with significant lithium reserves, is turning its attention to mining this mineral for economic prosperity and to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

·     Australia's lithium production is expected to double by 2027-28, with revenues tripling, potentially overtaking the South American Lithium Triangle development to become the world's biggest producer.

While the world is still relying heavily on fossil fuels, and the revenues they bring in, as green energy becomes more widespread, we can expect a new range of high-cost energy projects that could earn countries billions. The global demand for metals and minerals has been on the rise for years and is continuing to climb rapidly –too fast, in fact, for mining activities to keep up. As the need for these resources becomes greater as the world undergoes a green transition, the price of minerals, such as lithium, and metals, such as copper and zinc, are expected to soar. And this could be just the incentive that is needed to turn efforts away from fossil fuels to greener alternatives. 

Australia, which still relies heavily on coal mining for its economic prosperity and energy security, is beginning to turn its attention to lithium. With extensive mining experience and huge lithium reserves, Australia could play a major role in the green transition and make good money while doing it. Chile and Australia are home to the largest lithium reserves in the world, with 9.2 million metric tonnes and 5.7 million metric tonnes of lithium respectively. And while Chile has the bigger reserves, Australia is already exploiting its mining potential successfully, with a lithium output of around 68,450 metric tonnes in 2022 compared to Chile’s 26,000 tonnes output. 

Despite the potential for a shift to lithium mining, Australia continues to mine huge amounts of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, every year. Australia’s coal production increased by around 3.5 percent in 2021 and remained flat in 2022, at 565.1 million metric tonnes. While there is significant pressure to achieve the government’s net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 target, by December 2021 there were 37 coal projects at the feasibility stage. With 74,147 million tonnes of black coal and 74,039 Mt of brown coal, it’s no wonder that Australia wants to continue producing the fossil fuel, particularly as demand for Australian coal exports in Asia remains high. However, there may now be a cleaner and more lucrative alternative for the mining industry – lithium. 

Australian lithium exports could be earning as much as sales from thermal coal within the next five years as demand for the white gold increases with the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and other battery technology rises. Meanwhile, the value of fossil fuels is expected to decrease as demand trails off in favour of green alternatives. Recent data from the Australian government suggests that the country’s lithium production could double by 2027-28, with revenues expected to triple. And the value of Australia’s coal exports is expected to fall by over 70 over the same period. 

The price of lithium is expected to reach around $19 billion this year before dropping off as new mines open around the world, balancing out supply and demand. The value of lithium is expected to rise again after this slump as demand continues to climb well into the next decades. With EV sales projected to see tenfold growth between now and 2030, as well as the demand for batteries for electrical devices and renewable energy projects expected to rise sharply, there will be a much greater need for lithium.

In addition to lithium, Australia has around 22 percent of the world’s nickel reserves and 21 percent of its cobalt, meaning that a move away from coal does not spell the end for the country’s mining industry or role in the international energy industry.

Australia aims to be producing 116,240 tonnes of lithium a year by 2026, which could make it the world’s biggest producer. Although it will see strong competition from the South American Lithium Triangle development between Chile, Bolivia and Argentina. The three countries together account for approximately 56percent of the world’s lithium supply. 

Australia and those in the Lithium Triangle have significant potential to shape their mining operations and position themselves in the global metals and minerals market as the world shifts away from fossil fuels to green alternatives

（責(zé)任編輯：黃振 審核：蔣文娟 ）